News

News

Is Florida Still Growing, and What Is the Outlook for the Greater Tampa Bay and Suncoast Area?

As of March 2026, the most accurate current estimate for the population of Florida is approximately 24.3 million people.

According to the latest data and projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, the state’s growth continues to trend upward at an annual rate of about 1.9% to 2.0%.

Key Population Figures (2025–2026)

Data Point Estimate
Current Estimated Population (2026) 24,306,900
Official Census July 2025 Estimate 23,462,518
Annual Numeric Growth ~467,000–470,000 per year
National Rank 3rd (Behind California and Texas)

Growth Highlights
Rapid Expansion: Florida remains one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S., adding nearly 1,300 new residents per day on average through a combination of net domestic migration and international arrivals.
Concentrated Growth: Much of this increase is centered in the state’s largest metropolitan areas. For instance, Hillsborough County (Tampa) is currently estimated at approximately 1.63 million residents continuing its role as a major hub for new arrivals.
Future Projections: Based on current trends, Florida’s population is expected to surpass 25 million by early 2030.

Hillsborough, Pasco, & Pinellas as of March 2026
Tampa Bay Area Population Estimates (2026)

County 2026 Population Estimate Annual Growth Rate Notes
Hillsborough 1,629,652 ~1.50% Currently the 4th largest county in Florida
Pinellas 963,008 -0.15% Population has stabilized due to high density and limited land
Pasco 705,244 ~3.38% One of the fastest-growing counties in the state

Regional Trends
Pasco Leads Growth:
Pasco County is seeing the most significant surge in the region, driven by extensive new residential developments. It has grown by over 50% since 2010.
Hillsborough’s Density: While Hillsborough continues to grow at a steady clip, its numeric increase (adding roughly 24,000 residents annually) is among the highest in Florida.
Pinellas Stability: Pinellas remains the most densely populated county in Florida, but because it is largely “built-out,” its population growth has slowed significantly compared to its neighbors.

As of March 2026, here are the latest population and growth statistics for
Sarasota & Manatee Population Estimates (2026)

County 2026 Population Estimate Annual Growth Rate Notes
Manatee 486,142 2.94% Leading the region in percent growth; over 50% increase since 2010
Sarasota 485,654 0.94% Growth is largely driven by net in-migration (97%)

Key Growth Statistics
Manatee County

Rapid Expansion: Manatee is currently the 15th largest county in Florida. It is consistently one of the fastest-growing areas in the state, largely due to major residential developments in Lakewood Ranch and Parrish.

Sarasota County
Consistent In-Migration: Unlike many other parts of the country, almost all of Sarasota’s growth comes from people moving into the area rather than natural increase (births minus deaths).
Senior Population: Sarasota has one of the highest percentages of residents aged 65 and over in Florida (roughly 38%), which heavily influences the local economy and healthcare infrastructure.
Stable Development: Growth is heavily concentrated in the southern and eastern parts of the county, specifically around Palmer Ranch and the North Port area.

Regional Comparison
While Hillsborough adds the most people in sheer numbers, Manatee leads the Tampa Bay and Suncoast region in percentage growth with a projected 10.34% increase between 2025 and 2030. Together, the Sarasota-Bradenton metropolitan area is now estimated to have a combined population of approximately 779,000 residents.

Credit due to US Census and Florida Growth Trends.

Retail Development of Neighborhood, Grocery Anchored, Projects Is Booming

I was impressed with recent news, see below, regarding the state of retail in the US and especially Florida. Retail development of neighborhood, grocery anchored, projects are performing off the charts right now. We are blessed to be in the center of this industry with our current project list, retail partnerships, and geographical focus.

The current vacancy rate for neighborhood grocery-anchored shopping centers in Florida is generally very low, often falling well under the overall retail market vacancy rate.

Based on recent commercial real estate reports for various Florida markets (mostly spanning late 2024 to mid-2025):

  • Necessity-based retail, particularly grocery-anchored and neighborhood centers, remains strong, with vacancy rates reported below 4% in most metros.
  • Specific reports for sub-markets or property types indicate very tight conditions:
    • In the Miami market (Q3 2024), neighborhood centers maintained a very low 1.3% vacancy rate, with some submarkets reporting no vacancies in their neighborhood centers.
    • One national report noted that as of Q4 2024, the national grocery-anchored retail vacancy registered at 3.5%, which is a historical low. Given Florida’s generally strong retail market, its rate is likely at or below this national figure.

Overall, the data suggests that in Florida, neighborhood grocery-anchored centers are among the best-performing retail assets, characterized by a tight supply and high demand, keeping their vacancy rates in the low single digits (likely 1.5% to 3.5% range, depending on the specific metro area). (Gemini AI, 2025).

Pompano Shopper’s Haven Re-development

Shopper's Haven

We are excited to be underway with the re-development of the Shopper’s Haven Shopping Center in Pompano Beach, Florida.  The Publix store is under construction. Expected delivery Spring 2025.

Pizza and Irish Pub Headed to Livingston Marketplace

Dunphy Properties is pleased to announce two more tenants at Livingston Marketplace, a Publix-anchored shopping center in Lutz, Florida. We are excited to have Papa John’s and 40 Thieves Irish Pub in our center. Only one inline space still available!

Two New Inline Tenants at Livingston Marketplace

Dunphy Properties is pleased to announce the two newest tenants at Livingston Marketplace, a Publix-anchored shopping center in Lutz, Florida. We are excited to have IV Harmony Clinic and Prime Barbers in our center!

Block and Masonry Complete at Livingston Marketplace

Livingston Marketplace is well underway with block and masonry now complete. Roof insulation on Publix #1821 is nearly finished and our contractors continue to make way with the on-site utilities. The Project is projected for completion Q3 2022!

 

Opening Late 2022

Dunphy Properties is pleased to announce the newest tenant at Livingston Marketplace: The Postal Mail! Opening scheduled for late 2022.

Livingston Marketplace is slated for completion Q3 2022

Dunphy Properties is excited to be working alongside FMGI in the development of Publix #1821 at Livingston Marketplace. Despite the industry’s multiple challenges, the project is THREE weeks ahead of schedule thanks to our rock star team!

Broken Ground on Livingston Marketplace

Dunphy Properties is pleased to announce that we have broken ground on Livingston Marketplace, a Publix-Anchored shopping center in Lutz, Florida.

livingston market

Publix Coming Soon!

Dunphy Properties is very excited to announce its newest project at the southeast corner of County Line Road and Livingston Avenue in Lutz, Florida. This 73,000 square foot development will be anchored by Publix Super Market. Other executed leases to date include Publix Liquor, Heartland Dental, Grand Nails, and Circle K. Groundbreaking is scheduled in mid to late August; be sure to follow our progress as we create another excellent neighborhood shopping center to serve your needs.

Opening this summer!

Great graphics on the Publix at Market at Mirada. Opening this summer!

Market at Mirada

Can you say Heartland Dental and Yummy Tokyo? Coming soon to Outparcel #1 at Market at Mirada.

Mirada construction

Market at Mirada Update


Market at Mirada Construction

Despite the rainy weather, Hawkins Construction is hard at work on Market at Mirada in San Antonio, Florida.

Site work continues on Market at Mirada

construction Market at Mirada construction Market at Mirada construction Market at Mirada

Site work continues on Market at Mirada, the Publix-anchored shopping center in San Antonio, Florida, at Mirada Blvd. and the (under construction) newly re-aligned State Road 52.  Hawkins Construction is the general contractor and Cypress Gulf is the site work contractor.

Zoning approved for our $290 Mixed Use Development, Courthouse Landing, Chesterfield County, Virginia

Thank you to our financial partner Batson Cook, our development partners, our team in Tampa and especially to our team in Richmond. We are looking forward to completing he tasks at hand including the design, permitting and marketing phases of the project. We are blessed to be in partnership with you all and to be given this opportunity to be such a great and positive influence for change in the community of Chesterfield.

Read More

Publix Coming Soon!

publix

Publix to anchor new Market at Mirada in San Antonio, Florida

Dairy Queen OPEN

Dairy Queen OPEN at Hays Road Town Center, Hudson, Florida

World’s largest Starbucks to open on Mag Mile in 2019, as chain expands Roastery concept

Starbucks plans to open a four-level Roastery flagship on Michigan Avenue, its largest space yet for the high-end concept that the coffee giant is rolling out around the world.

Executive Chairman Howard Schultz said the company plans to bring its Starbucks Reserve Roastery showplace to the current Crate & Barrel building at Michigan Avenue and Erie Street in 2019.

Read full article here. 

Regency mall set for transformation into urban town center after Henrico supervisors OK rezoning

Henrico County’s Board of Supervisors voted unanimously Tuesday to approve a rezoning request that will allow developers to transform the decades-old Regency mall into an urban town center with up to 1,250 residences.

Although Regency’s owners had said they wanted to save the mall after purchasing it for $13 million in 2015, poor vacancy rates and the steady decline of retail shopping nationwide have led to a change in vision.

With plans to build a NOVA indoor aquatics center and a Surge trampoline park in the former Macy’s South and North buildings, respectively, the mall’s new rezoning — urban mixed-use — will allow The Rebkee Co. and Thalhimer Realty Partners Inc. to build residential housing that had been restricted in the zoning district.

“If you don’t bring rooftops and people to Regency, you’ll never be able to support additional commercial development and you’ll continue to see what you have today,” said Jim Theobald, a lawyer for the developers. In a public hearing and a community meeting earlier this summer, the development team and several nearby residents said they wanted to see the project succeed so that Regency does not fall into obscurity like other aging shopping malls struggling to compete against Amazon and other Online retailers. “If we don’t do something to make the changes that people want to see…shopping centers will just die,” Henrico Supervisor Pat O’Bannon said in an interview before Tuesday’s meeting.

Read More

New Construction of Dairy Queen Underway

construction
Underway with construction of the new Dairy Queen to be located at Hays Road Town Center, at SR 52 and Hays Road in Hudson, Florida.  Can’t wait for those Blizzards!

Publix Aprons Cooking School

Get ready for the new year with Publix Aprons Cooking School Online

ISCS

I have been attending ICSC conventions for 32 years. As a young professional, I was pretty excited to attend these shows, meet with old friends, make new ones, and enjoy the energy that is ever present, especially at the opening of the conference. Nowadays, after a long career and considering the energy and money it takes to attend, I sometimes ask myself, “Is it worth it?” Do I really need another show?” The answer is always an emphatic, “Yes.”

I have been attending ICSC conventions for 32 years. As a young professional, I was pretty excited to attend these shows, meet with old friends, make new ones, and enjoy the energy that is ever present, especially at the opening of the conference. Nowadays, after a long career and considering the energy and money it takes to attend, I sometimes ask myself, “Is it worth it?” Do I really need another show?” The answer is always an emphatic, “Yes.”

I attend, on average, 5 shows a year. What do I gain by attending them?

Well, first would be that energy I mentioned earlier. There is nothing like the energy and optimism that comes from one of our trade conferences. 1,500-50,000 professionals, depending on the venue, all working in the same industry, excited to be working and discussing transactions, assisting one another, and learning something new. This is seriously invigorating. We need this, for the Commercial Real Estate Development, Leasing/Sales, and Management is a very tough business. It can beat you up badly. So encouragement along the way is essential.

Education: I’m learning every day in this business, but these conferences have always accelerated my understanding and education.

Networking and meeting new people and old friends is, in general, a good thing. It keeps the business fresh and the opportunities anew.

Fun: Yup, I admit it. It’s a good time, too. Getting together with friends and associates in the business … learning what’s going on in their lives … finding the potential for doing more business … all while enjoying good food, good wine, a great golf course, and the culture and entertainment of the cities … good times.

Finally, DEALS. Let’s face it … we do have to perform and execute transactions to thrive in the business. As difficult and testing as most transactions are today, it is incredibly rewarding when a deal comes together. The competitor in me loves the transactional part of the business, too. I am sure all industries and their corresponding tradeshows provide the same type of incentives, but I feel ICSC shows are special. We are blessed to be in a most dynamic and challenging profession. To the young professional, I would encourage you to embrace the conventions and the industry with this mindset. To the old guys like me, continue to be encouraged and inspired by what we do.

See you at RECON in Vegas, May 21-24, 2017!

Jim